I thought Netflix had just passed out…

Scoble proclaims “Netflix is dead”, by suggesting a P2P system that sells and distributes high-def videos, as signs of impending doom — both for traditional (Blockbuster) and semi-traditional (Netflix) home video models. He also says the quality is indistinguishable from the HD-DVDs out there in the market!

It made me realize why would any of us go into a Blockbuster in the future, or wait two days for a DVD to show up from Netflix.

Well, the wheels of technology definitely turn faster nowadays. However, I’m curious to understand a few more criteria that’ll define early adoption rates:

1. Instant gratification: One of the main reasons, Blockbuster is trying to beat Netflix in its own game, is offering users the opportunity to return DVDs and collect the next DVD rightaway, as opposed to having to wait for delivery. If this new P2P technology allows high-speed downloads, it definitely has a chance for adoption among the early adopters. I wonder how fast the download was?

2. Creatures of Habit: How long did it take for the mainstream consumer to switch completely from video to DVD? How long is it going to take for us to decide between HD-DVD and Blue Ray discs? How long would it take to switch from DVD to the winner of the above battle?

On the flipside, consumers could just leapfrog high-def DVDs to high-def downloads?

3. Internet Traffic Jam: Even assuming, that’s going to be the case? What’s the strain on current internet bandwidth and infrastructure going to be for streaming/downloadable P2P high-def movies?

Despite the fact that P2P seems to be the best technology for video swapping, I’m not going to hold my breadth for high-def downloads ruling the roost anytime soon…

Or should I?

Check out my earlier “Only community can save Netflix” post…

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  1. Netflix listens? Streaming movies for current users « Marketing Nirvana — by Mario Sundar

    […] Posted by Mario Sundar in community marketing, evangelizing technology. trackback Following our recent coverage on Netflix and its business model, I was pleasantly surprised to see Netflix’s […]

  2. Mario Sundar

    I agree we’re still at an early stage of the evolution of on-demand downloads, but yes, cost will definitely play an important role in the decisions made by consumers.

  3. damon billian

    I still think “having” the physical good means a lot to people. What happens if there is a system problem, a problem with your computer, etc.? I also have the benefit of being able to resell whatever physical good I buy…

    As mentioned on the Scoble blog, cost (equipment) also becomes a factor for many folks that are not going to be early adopters. DVD players only became popular when their price came down to what the average consumer could afford.

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